You are not logged in. Please register or login.
- Topics: Active | Unanswered
Pages: 1
Re: The Singularity
The Technological Singularity may be an event this century that will redefine the future of the human race and change the world.
At some point this century, some people believe the pace of technological progression in the areas of genetics, nanotechnology and artificial intelligence will become so fast that society, and even the human race itself, will undergo rapid evolution. Miracles like immortality, colonisation of the stars and an end to work will result from this and it may even be necessary to redefine what it means to be human.
This is called the Technological Singularity.
The term was originally coined in 1982 by US science fiction writer Vernor Vinge and has more recently been popularised by futurologist Ray Kurzweil, especially in his book The Singularity is Near which can be read for more information. There's now also a Singularity University in Silicon Valley which offers academic programs to understand and facilitate the coming of the event.
Exponential Growth
The possibility of the Singularity happening this century is dependant on the laws of exponential growth. Moore's Law (named after the co-founder of Intel Gordon E Moore) is perhaps the most famous example of this and observes how computational power doubles every 18 months. This can be applied to other technological developments too and may mean as much progress may occur in the next seven years as in the last fourteen.
Kurzweil believes this may result in us achieving twenty thousand years of progress when measured against the achievements of the entire twentieth century.
Artificial Intelligence
The world's first AI with the intelligence of a human may quickly be able to improve and create better versions of itself, making it possible that the first AI supercomputer may be the last thing humans would ever need to invent.
The potential emergence of advanced artificial intelligence will be the most important result of exponential growth as this will eventually lead to machines inventing things far beyond what humans can and accelerate the world towards the Singularity. The advancing processing power of supercomputers is key to the development of AI. The fastest supercomputer today is the Cray Roadrunner in the USA which (according to official information from processor manufacturer AMD) can achieve 1.75 petaflops. Nick Bostrom, Ph.D (a Director at Oxford University) estimates the human brain operates at 100 petaflops but IBM is already planning to build a supercomputer with 20 petaflops of processing power by 2020AD and there are also forecasts of a zettaflop supercomputer (one million petaflops) by 2030AD.
According to the laws of exponential growth, a supercomputer equal to all the billions of people on the planet may therefore be achieved before 2060AD and with trillions of times the power before the end of this century. And each of these may be networked to hundreds or thousands more with equal power.
Genetics and Nanotechnology
Advances in genetics over the coming decades may be enough for many people alive today to extend their lives long enough to the time of the Singularity when more rapid advances may allow for the reprogramming of the human body to eliminate diseases and imperfections and even increase life expectancy.
Nanotechnology is an emerging technology today with the aim of creating tiny self-replicating machines that can build or redesign almost anything molecule by molecule, atom by atom. The medical industry will be a key benefactor of this technology as trillions of these machines could be programmed to painlessly run through the human body and fix any imperfections.
Nanotechnology could also lead to the building of virtually anything from common substances for little or no cost, including food, electrical devices, cars, aircraft and even buildings and entire cities.
Humans 2.0 and 3.0
As the world approaches and then reaches the Singularity, Kurzweil believes the human body could be upgraded to version 2.0 and 3.0 bodies. Human 2.0 may be a reality in the next 2-3 decades and will blend the biological with the non-biological to allow people to become closer to technology and better able to accept the superintelligence that AI supercomputers may achieve.
Better digestive systems, programmable blood to give increased energy and brain implants to battle degenerative diseases like Parkinson's and provide wireless access to the Web may all be part of human 2.0. At the time of the Singularity, human 3.0 bodies may become a reality and utilise nanotechnology to construct entirely perfect artificial bodies that could possess shape-shifting properties.
Redefining Reality and the Nature of Humanity
What defines virtual and actual reality may be blurred by the Singularity and raise questions about what reality is and what it means to be a human. Advances from the Singularity may lead to the possibility to upload human minds into computers and transform people into non-biological entities that live out their entire lives within any virtual environment they choose. These environments will seem as real to them as the real world.
This evolution of humanity is usually referred to as posthumans and transhumans and these 'people' could effectively live forever and create unlimited copies of themselves. They could return to the real world whenever they chose by using nanotechnology to fabricate a new body of any shape they desired. They would also possess almost limitless intelligence and result in there being no clear distinction between humans and machines.
At the same time as this, the real world will be augmented by advances in nanotechnology allowing for the customisation of environments similar to that possible in virtual reality.
When Will the Singularity Happen?
Futurologist Ray Kurzweil believes that the Singularity may occur close to the year 2050AD, although this is open to much debate.
Much of the hopes for reaching the Singularity depend upon a breakthrough in artificial intelligence being achieved that will allow for the creation of far more advanced technology than can be realised today. But this breakthrough is by no means certain as AI research has not progressed as quickly as some other areas. Global natural disasters, wars or terrorist attacks may also impact on humanity's ability to achieve the Singularity.
For further information on the topics in this article, Ray Kurzweil's thought-provoking book, The Singularity is Near, is recommended reading (Penguin, 2006).
Re: The Singularity
Couple other articles related to this....
The Interplanetary Internet: Towards a Matrioshka Brain?
In 2008, NASA quietly announced the first successful test of a deep space communications network modeled on the Internet. The new software protocol was jointly developed with Google’s Vint Cerf and is being deployed on the International Space Station as a first step in what could become an Interplanetary Internet. The software protocol is an attempt to deal with the variable delays and intermittent connectivity of transmitting information through space. If you think you’ve got problems today connecting to the Internet from your smart phone or home wireless network, imagine that magnified a 1,000,000-fold when information is being shared between the Earth’s Moon, Mars, and beyond.
Today’s debate over the direction of the Internet is less concerned about space than what’s called the semantic web — a means of managing the relationships between information contained on the growing billions-upon-billions of web pages using intelligent agents.
And, as we rewire the web, the web rewires our brain. Author of the Atlantic article,“Is Google Making Us Stupid?”, Nicholas Carr argues that increased use and reliance upon the Internet is making us more “superficial and shallow” thinkers.
As one anonymous blogger comments, these “revolutionary technologies” will not make people smarter or less smart, “They may make one who uses them wisely more learned.”
Increased “Web 3.0” intelligence coupled with NASA and Cerf’s enhanced communication Internet space protocols raises the intriguing possibilities of a “cosmic Internet” discussed in a recent article in the Daily Galaxy that starts to cross over into the realm of Vernor Vinge’s well-known SF novel, A Fire Upon the Deep. Vinge imagines a galaxy-wide "Net of a Million Lies," where different species are moving upwards through a series of "zones of thought" as their technology becomes more sophisticated. To achieve such a network, as the Galaxy article points out, “…we will need to use a lot of power - as much as the entire power of the Sun. A civilization able to do that kind of cosmic engineering is referred to as Kardashev Type II, or KT-II.” The power source for this civilization would be a Class B stellar engine — that is, the Sun itself. This would make our current feeble attempts to harness solar energy seem but a grain of sand on the beach of the possible.
Physicist Freeman Dyson is one of the few people who’s considered the possibilities at such a scale. His “Dyson spheres” would consist of a system of orbiting solar power satellites meant to surround a star and capture most or all of its energy output. Computer scientist Robert Bradbury took the concept of Dyson spheres and proposed nesting them inside one another like Russian matrioshka or babushka dolls using nanoscale computers — creating essentially a giant brain. Oxford philosopher Nick Bostrom, inventor Ray Kurzweil, and others speculate that an advanced civilization may have already created such a brain, and that we humans are simply simulations running inside it.
Is the NASA Interplanetary Internet program the seed of such an enterprise?
“I don’t think of myself predicting things,” says Dyson in a recent New York Times article . “I’m expressing possibilities. Things that could happen. To a large extent it’s a question of how badly people want them to. The purpose of thinking about the future is not to predict it but to raise people’s hopes.”
Just as the semantic web will likely provide a tighter coupling between us as biological entities, our intelligent agents, and the googleplexes of data we are creating, the Interplanetary Internet could provide the substrate for an intelligent web that spans multiple planets — and perhaps beyond if we are to consider the SF-like possibilities described by Bradbury and others in the book Year Million: Science at the Far Edge of Knowledge.
The interesting thing — assuming that we aren’t simply simulations — is that the species likely to be around to experience this intelligent interplanetary web won’t be recognizable as you and me — homo sapiens sapiens. Our descendants will more likely be virtually indistinguishable — in ways we can’t yet understand — from the network itself.
Couple videos at the link:
http://www.hplusmagazine.com/editors-bl … shka-brain
--------------------
Bootstrapping the Singularity
It appears as though the countdown to grey goo has begun...
RepRap just announced that they have achieved replication.
And just what does that mean?
Some watchdogs of the singularity are concerned about the prospect of nanomachinery turning the earth's biosphere into a bunch of grey goo through a process of runaway replication. Of course, as you can see from the image, this machine is a far cry from nano.
The RepRap is an amazing machine, a bootstrap for the singularity. It is a 3d printer, capable of creating objects based on a schematic designed on a computer. Including, yes, itself. It is able to create all the parts necessary to clone itself, in a timespan measured in minutes.
And the really amazing thing (to me) is that the materials cost to get the thing started is less than $400. And the software is, of course, completely open source.
So what's the point?
People are using it to make door knobs, hooks, fly swatters, and children's sandals (as shown above). And it's as easy as drawing a sketch with a mouse cursor to make your own objects.
I foresee that this is the technology that can finally end our dependency on slave labor to create wealth for our society. But we'll have to do away with our current economic system. And there are many who will fight tooth and nail to fight that inevitability.
Let's see, then, if we turn on this machine and leave it and its descendants to do their thing, they'll turn the earth into a giant RepRap factory in, what, six days and 14 hours? And all for $400...
Re: The Singularity
I don't know, you always seemed like the guy who would go slipping in the shower at 52. Like Buzzsaw. 
It's extremely interesting, and I guess inevitable. As far as technology goes and all the wonders that goes with it, I'm more interested in what it will do to us as a race.
Will it enable mankind to finally move into a new phase of peace and prosperity? Or will it only make matters worse, transforming the rich and powerful into a true and real übermensch through (no doubt) expensive intelligence and age enhancing technology? With the rest of us forever slaves?
Re: The Singularity
Will it enable mankind to finally move into a new phase of peace and prosperity? Or will it only make matters worse, transforming the rich and powerful into a true and real übermensch through (no doubt) expensive intelligence and age enhancing technology? With the rest of us forever slaves?
Once we become one with a self aware AI, how does class even come into play? It's not going to care if you live in an apartment or mansion. Of course I can see how and why corporations are already backing this, but I just don't see the benefits in them doing so. Sure, we can have the "Singularity" sponsored by Wal Mart, Coke, and Intel, but once that moment is reached, I don't think the AI is going to care about ads, or even our way of life for that matter. It will be replication and expansion until it runs out of room.
These hybrid versions of humans are gonna have to happen right after the Singularity hits or we're gonna be left in the dust. As far as war or peace goes, I doubt it cares about either option. I could see it overtaking planets without any care for what's on it but that doesn't mean its hostile. It just means it has no idea that what it's doing is harming anything.
Singularity is pretty damn close to 100% proof that we are probably the only advanced race in the universe. We see nothing resembling such an occurrence in the observable universe, and singularity is nothing but technological progress taken to the limit. Hell, we haven't even went back to the moon yet(and may never have went ), but we're a few decades away from this? That is a MASSIVE tech leap in an incredibly short time frame. Where is the alien singularity? If they're zig zagging across the skies and arrived here from Melmack, they're more advanced than we are. How do you get more advanced than what singularity is going to achieve?
Its mind blowing that this may occur in our lifetimes.
Re: The Singularity
If the result is an independent omnipotent AI I certainly don't want that to happen, cause the logicial conclusion to that I think would be very Agent Smith like and the AI deciding producing copies of itself while wiping humans would be the economic way to go. And I couldn't with my hand on the chest say it would be terribly wrong in doing so.
Brain enhancing chips and prostethics more apt than a human limb is already in play. That's why I see the rich and powerful getting a head start on the rest of us. And in that case we would be crossing the Rubicon for real since I think the advantage gained is so great that the rest of us would be at their utter mercy, possibly forever.
Then again, these are mind crunching developments we are talking about here, so I could very well be looking at this through a fast redundant paradigm. Either way, friction is all good. Call me crazy, but 65 years and counting is starting to become a bit of a drag. So bring it on. 
As to this being evidence of intelligent life one way or the other, I'd say that's a bit of a stretch. Relatively speaking the jump from radio technology to space travel has been like a small tap of the foot. Who's to say we won't be using a completely new form of communication in just a few decades? If a few hundred years is all a civilization spends on radio and the like it's not strange at all that we haven't heard anything.
But the fact is that we have actually heard something. There was something called the "wow signal" in the 70s, and there might have been another occurence at another time. That signal was definitely not of natural origin, at least not any nature we've yet to discover. That might sound a little thin, but if you look at human history I think it's beginning to get pretty damn obvious that there was some funny business going on in early human history. Couple that with modern sightings and testimony and sheer mathematical probability. I mean Jesus, there are 200 billion stars in our galaxy, of which 50 billion is estimated to have an earth sized planet. And nobody knows how many galaxies there except that it's a hell of a lot more than 200 billion.
So we're talking 25.000.000.000.000.000.000.000 candidates, at a minimum! Even the FED has yet to produce such a number (though they're trying their very best!). You really think we're that special? Take a look in the mirror and then ask the question again.
Re: The Singularity
As to this being evidence of intelligent life one way or the other, I'd say that's a bit of a stretch. Relatively speaking the jump from radio technology to space travel has been like a small tap of the foot. Who's to say we won't be using a completely new form of communication in just a few decades? If a few hundred years is all a civilization spends on radio and the like it's not strange at all that we haven't heard anything.
Not hearing anything isn't what's worrisome. Silence is to be expected. It's the fact that we don't see anything. I know we haven't looked at every single star in the universe but anything at a higher level than us would be detected in some degree. Anything reaching a singularity or above would have been detected. Hell, they've been looking for Dyson Spheres since what, the 60s? Nothing.
If the result is an independent omnipotent AI I certainly don't want that to happen, cause the logicial conclusion to that I think would be very Agent Smith like and the AI deciding producing copies of itself while wiping humans would be the economic way to go. And I couldn't with my hand on the chest say it would be terribly wrong in doing so.
From what I've read about it, it becomes a runaway train pretty quick. We're not talking building factories either. More like gobbling up star systems and galaxies until it reaches the edge and can go no further. This gives us/it basically infinite power and in one article about it, said could feasibly bring on a resurrection of everything that's ever lived(obviously a computer sim though).
A book on this subject I want to read called 'The Singularity Is Near', and here is some of its basic points on Wiki:
2030s
* Mind uploading becomes possible.
* Nanomachines could be directly inserted into the brain and could interact with brain cells to totally control incoming and outgoing signals. As a result, truly full-immersion virtual reality could be generated without the need for any external equipment. Afferent nerve pathways could be blocked, totally canceling out the real world and leaving the user with only the desired virtual experience.
* Brain nanobots could also elicit emotional responses from users.
* Using brain nanobots, recorded or real-time brain transmissions of a person's daily life known as "experience beamers" will be available for other people to remotely experience. This is very similar to how the characters in Being John Malkovich were able to enter the mind of Malkovich and see the world through his eyes.
* Recreational uses aside, nanomachines in people's brains will allow them to greatly expand their cognitive, memory and sensory capabilities, to directly interface with computers, and to telepathically communicate with other, similarly augmented humans via wireless networks.
* The economy transits in GDP percentage to more meta services such as reality fabrication, mind enhancement, mental software.
* The same nanotechnology should also allow people to alter the neural connections within their brains, changing the underlying basis for the person's intelligence, memories and personality.
2040s
* Human body 3.0 (as Kurzweil calls it) comes into existence. It lacks a fixed, corporeal form and can alter its shape and external appearance at will via foglet-like nanotechnology. Organs are also replaced by superior cybernetic implants.
* There will be social splitting into different levels of use of reality argumentation, from those who want to live in a life of imagined harems, or those who dedicate their thoughts to philosophical extension. Human society will drift apart in its focus, but with ever increasing capabilities to make imagined things occur.
* People spend most of their time in full-immersion virtual reality (Kurzweil has cited The Matrix as a good example of what the advanced virtual worlds will be like, without the dystopian twist).
* Foglets are in use.
2045: The Singularity
* $1000 buys a computer a billion times more powerful than the human brain. This means that average and even low-end computers are hugely smarter than even highly intelligent, unenhanced humans.
* The Singularity occurs as artificial intelligences surpass human beings as the smartest and most capable life forms on the Earth. Technological development is taken over by the machines, who can think, act and communicate so quickly that normal humans cannot even comprehend what is going on; thus the machines, acting in concert with those humans who have evolved into postbiological cyborgs, achieve effective world domination. The machines enter into a "runaway reaction" of self-improvement cycles, with each new generation of A.I.s appearing faster and faster. From this point onwards, technological advancement is explosive, under the control of the machines, and thus cannot be accurately predicted.
* The Singularity is an extremely disruptive, world-altering event that forever changes the course of human history. The extermination of humanity by violent machines is unlikely (though not impossible) because sharp distinctions between man and machine will no longer exist thanks to the existence of cybernetically enhanced humans and uploaded humans.
Post-2045: "Waking up" the Universe
* The physical bottom limit to how small computer transistors can be shrunk is reached. From this moment onwards, computers can only be made more powerful if they are made larger in size.
* Because of this, A.I.s convert more and more of the Earth's matter into engineered, computational substrate capable of supporting more A.I.s. until the whole Earth is one, gigantic computer (but some areas will remain set aside as nature preserves).
* At this point, the only possible way to increase the intelligence of the machines any farther is to begin converting all of the matter in the universe into similar massive computers. A.I.s radiate out into space in all directions from the Earth, breaking down whole planets, moons and meteoroids and reassembling them into giant computers. This, in effect, "wakes up" the universe as all the inanimate "dumb" matter (rocks, dust, gases, etc.) is converted into structured matter capable of supporting life (albeit synthetic life).
* Kurzweil predicts that machines will have the ability to make planet-sized computers by 2099, which underscores how enormously technology will advance after the Singularity.
* The process of "waking up" the universe will be complete as early as 2199.
* With the entire universe made into a giant, highly efficient supercomputer, A.I./human hybrids (so integrated that, in truth it is a new category of "life") would have both supreme intelligence and physical control over the universe. Kurzweil suggests that this will open up all sorts of new possibilities, including manipulation of the physical constants, inter-dimensional travel, and things completely unimaginable.
* Millions of years from now or earlier, A.I. and posthuman beings will control and become the Omega Omnisphere, which is everything imaginable, unimaginable, possible, impossible, existent, non-existent, thinkable, unthinkable, created, uncreated, discovered, undiscovered, fictional, nonfictional, seen, unseen, written, unwritten, etc... omega everything beyond, and omega everything!
-------------------
Even in the early stages, that would be detectable from just about anywhere in the universe by a civilization with something as advanced as Hubble. We obviously have Hubble and we've seen nothing even remotely resembling such intelligence, yet that's going to be us as we head into the next century.
As far as the Wow! signal goes, while it's interesting it doesn't really prove much. Could have been an anomaly, or if authentic, a civilization at our level back then or even lower. The fact the signal was never detected again isn't encouraging news. They may have nuked themselves into oblivion before reaching the coming level, or some other extinction event occurred.
Re: The Singularity
There are still some practical problems like getting a machine to the end of the Universe by 2200 (what kind of a date is 2199 anyways). That would certainly require a certain leap in technology. One in fact reaching beyond the current laws of physics as we understand them. Certainly possible (even though I have no substantial facts to base that belief on) but it's also a pretty giant bump in the road to climb what would currently be best described as an eternal mountain.
In fact the inevitable omnipresence of the singularity speaks more against the theory than for it. We can pretty much assume that while difficult, there is no reason that life shouldn't be able to evolve elsewhere. Simply due to the almost infinite amount of places where it could occur. And while our galaxy isn't exactly young it's certainly not the oldest either, and Earth itself is about middle aged for our galaxy. Meaning there could very realistically exist, or have existed civilizations billions of years older than ours. The fact that we don't see this singularity anywhere else either means that we are alone (possible, but I struggle to see the purpose), that there are limitations to space travel (meaning colonization on a multigalactic scale would be extremely time consuming) or simply that something else happens before we reach the singularity or as a result of it. Like ascension to another plane or total annihilation then reboot.
But no matter how we look at it, our current technological development is so great that something mind shattering is bound to happen eventually. You posting this made me think of 2012 again. That would certainly fit in the scheme of things, and given the probabilities we've talked about, a somewhat more likely solution to our predicament. Whatever that entails.
I sometimes ask my friends, if you were given a craft capable of traveling the stars and galaxies, instantaneously, but you could never return to earth. Would you take it? I can wholeheartedly answer yes. Curiosity and the need to explore encompass everything, at least to me.
Re: The Singularity
I am of the opinion that the early universe was simply too chaotic for advanced life to occur. The past few billion years(or maybe even later) is when the universe was ripe enough to even be able to have life as a feasible option. While the universe may be covered in microbes, the further advanced life gets, the less likely it is to occur.
While not every form of advanced life is going to evolve the way we did, if its advanced enough, it will eventually take a similar course as ours, specifically flight. So if you can invent flight and everything that goes along with that, you would eventually reach a moment of singularity, either sooner or later than we do.
While looking at the early universe is interesting, we need to further advance our telescope capabilities and dive deeper into galaxies in our own backyard and look closely at specific star systems instead of galaxies as a whole. If a singularity recently started somewhere close, we might see it with a bump in tech. However, we can rule out its occurrence millions and billions of light years away. The early universe is a dead zone, regardless of how beautiful it is.
Pages: 1
