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Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
No no, I meant I couldn't find it before you posted the link. PPP is good.
All I have is this:
The Trump Apocalypse Watch is a subjective daily estimate, using a scale of one to four horsemen, of how likely it is that Donald Trump will be elected president, thus triggering an apocalypse in which we all die.
Donald Trump had a slow news day on Monday, which I guess is good for those of us who want to try to avoid a nuclear winter? It means he didn’t cause any more harm to his tanking campaign, but it also means he didn't undo any of the damage that weeks of verbal meltdowns have done to his presidential chances.
All things considered, the threat level remains at half a horseman.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
Donald Trump’s astonishing tactics make history irrelevant
One of the great spectacles of this election season has been the variety and intensity of Trump-hating. Few can beat Vanity Fair’s early contribution of words and images titled Donald Trump’s Short Fingers: A Historical Analysis. But serious-minded editorialists have done their best, dripping the sort of personal invective you rarely hear from anyone but criminal barristers and theatre critics. Even the cable comedians, who can tap a rich insult vocabulary, have had to dig in to match their rage to the Republican candidate’s bluster.
It has taken a while, but the polls show voters are taking notice. Hillary Clinton is pulling away at one end, and Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, is nudging 10 per cent at the other. Mr Trump is sagging in the middle.
History shows that when a candidate is as far back as the Republican is at this point in the race, there is no coming back. But Mr Trump has rendered all precedents irrelevant. And if I were Mrs Clinton’s campaign team, I would hold off opening the celebratory champagne for a few weeks yet.
A major concern should be two names on the recently released list of Mr Trump’s economic advisers: John Paulson and Steven Mnuchin. Mr Paulson is the better known of the two men, a hedge fund manager who made an estimated $3bn-$4bn personally by betting against the US housing market in 2007. Mr Mnuchin cut his teeth at Goldman Sachs in New York before moving to Los Angeles to invest in films such as Avatar and X-Men, later picking up IndyMac Bank, a failed home lender, from the ashes of the financial crisis. He then fixed it up and sold it for a big profit as OneWest Bank.
Both men have a keen eye for value, and are ready to buy when everyone else wants to sell. They profit from extreme volatility and are not afraid of a big short. Mrs Clinton, if she were somehow to lose, would be the biggest political short of all time. She has plenty of financial titans backing her, such as Warren Buffett and George Soros. But to see Mr Paulson, architect of the most successful trade in recent Wall Street history, lining up against her can’t feel good.
Which begs the question: what path to victory do they see for Mr Trump that the rest of us don’t?
If one were to credit Mr Trump’s politics with an underlying logic — and the credit would have to be extra high-yield — it is that he is the only one listening when Americans say they are sick of the same old political routines.
Every politician in every presidential race promises to fix Washington and fight for the people against the establishment. But never has there been a wrecking ball like Mr Trump. He has shown himself to be racist, sexist, callous and crude, yet the 40 per cent or so of Americans who support him still consider him the only honest man in politics. His candidacy feeds the fantasy of those who would decimate government.
His plan to lower corporate and personal income taxes and cut regulations is in the mainstream of Republican thinking, a traditional business charter.
The promise to rewrite America’s trade agreements to boost domestic manufacturing is more radical and aimed at winning votes in the Rust Belt. But it is of little practical concern to investors, who can adjust to any economic reality with a few keystrokes.
For those who hate Mr Trump, these past few weeks since the Republican Convention have only confirmed the horror. Here is a man who belittles the Muslim parents of an American soldier who died in combat, and compares his “sacrifice” building hotels and casinos to theirs; who sends what to many people sounds like a dog whistle to gun rights supporters about assassinating his opponent. But if you were inclined to believe in Mr Trump, you might conclude that these episodes had shown how much room he still has to manoeuvre. A candidate willing to say or do anything is hard to box in and will not fight by the usual rules.
In the category of known unknowns, we have the rumoured Trump file on the Clintons. It might seem impossible that after so many years and so much scrutiny, there are still beans to spill. Yet these are the Clintons, and the Republican party candidate is not likely to let scruple get in the way of a good scandal.
This shadow only darkened with the recent talk of Russians hacking the Democratic National Committee, and Mr Trump’s suggestion that they hack Mrs Clinton’s state department emails. If there is anything embarrassing or humiliating left to discover about the Clintons, odds are he will find it and advertise it.
Lots of people have been speculating that Mr Trump doesn’t want to be president. That it sounds too much like hard work. That all he is doing in running for office is to prepare the way for Trump TV, his own network with millions of paying subscribers.
But, win or lose, he has already yanked America’s political centre to the right: a great service to those who believe in him. Until the votes are counted, Democrats should not take their eye off a candidate willing to churn the political waters so violently and revel in the volatility that brings.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
Clinton and Trump in Statistical Tie; Trump Has Closed the Gap Among Older Millennials
If the election for President were being held today and the Democratic nominee for President is Hillary Clinton and the Republican nominee for President is Donald Trump; the Libertarian nominee is Gary Johnson and the Green party nominee is Jill Stein for whom would you vote?
Hillary Clinton 38%
Donald Trump 36%
Gary Johnson 8%
Jill Stein 5%
Not sure 13%
*Percentages may not equal 100% due to rounding.
The Takeaways: In a new Zogby Analytics online poll conducted August 12-13, +/-2.8% MOE, we asked 1,277 likely voters who they would vote for if the election for President were being held today. Since our Last poll in early July, Clinton still maintains a small 2% lead over Trump. It seems the convention bumps are behind us and we are back to a close race!
Donald Trump continues to lead among his core groups, which are men, he leads Clinton 41% to 35%. He also leads Clinton among older likely voters such as 50-64 year olds (41%-36%), and those 65+ (44%-36%).
Trump's numbers have dipped a little among middle income voters, Hillary Clinton now leads among those voters who earn $35k-50k (38%-37%), $50k-75K (37%-34%) and $75-100k (45-35%). Clinton also leads big among her core base-Millennials 18-29 years old (36%-26%), 18-24 year olds (59%-22%), Hispanics (51%-18%) and African Americans (81%-8%), which is not a big surprise. She has also won back the support of women voters, which Trump had narrowed the gap in our last poll; Clinton is winning among women 42% to 32%.
Trump has kept the race close by winning Independents. He is winning Independents 32% to 26% and has also closed the gap among older Millennials. Trump is tied with Clinton at 30% among 25-34 year old voters. Another interesting development is over the years we have tracked voting habits among NASCAR fans and Weekly WalMart shoppers. Ten years ago these groups tended to slant conservative and Republican. That trend has been reversed during the Obama Presidency, and these consumers tend to be more liberal and supporters of Democrats today. Trump has reversed this trend. Both NASCAR fans and WalMart shoppers favor Trump over Clinton. Donald Trump is winning NASCAR fans (44% to 36%) and weekly WalMart shoppers 41% to 36%.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
Just an FYI on that story, it's entirely based on Rasmussen polling, which is one of the most right-leaning pollsters out there. It only gets a C+ on Nate Silver's ranking of pollsters.
And I keep reading "the race is close."
Where is it close?
Will someone answer that? I'm begging you.
The battleground states aren't even battlegrounds at this point. Washington Post poll just released has Hillary up by 7, 8, 9 or more points.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/page/201 … DPpMbWibQ#
The great thing about the poll above is you can change it based on different responses, likely voters, registered voters, democrats, etc. Take a look. She gets 88% of Dems to vote for her; he gets 77% of GOP. She gets 39% of Ind.
Alarmingly, she gets 87% of the black vote and 69% of the non-white vote.
I don't quite understand what they are talking about. I keep asking for information, but nobody can answer.
The race is not even close (at this point) anymore. People here keep posting cherry picked general election polling results, new phone app results, "unskewed" polling results, and online polls etc because they are then able to ignore the reality of the the Electoral Map. The electoral map currently shows Hillary at 273-302 to start. State polling averages also shows her ahead in every single swing state. Think about that...all of them.
A great deal of the GOP won't be voting for Trump at all this election. Never in my life have I seen so many prominent members of a political party speak against their own-it's unprecedented. Hillary essentially takes all of the minority votes.
Absentee voting starts soon, and most people have already made up their minds. The debates will be the final blow to Trump. I'm sure some of these half wits will celebrate his Jr. High narrative and punchlines, but it will only sour more people at the end of the day. Unless something incredible is released from Wikileaks, Hillary Clinton will be the new POTUS.
Based on the trajectory and what I see today, I'd bet she picks up 323-347 EVs.
- Smoking Guns
- Rep: 330
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
I didn't get to see all of Trump's speech tonight. What I did see of it I liked.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
Never in my life have I seen such a media campaign against someone. Typing Trump and news in google and it's pages upon pages, all negative.
Someone's desperate, and I don't think it's because he will "lose easily".
I didn't get to see all of Trump's speech tonight. What I did see of it I liked.
I liked Trump the minute I saw how much the establishment hated him, but I had to watch one of his speeches to find out that his policies are actually quite good. If he can do half of what he says it will be great for America.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
polluxlm wrote:Never in my life have I seen such a media campaign against someone. Typing Trump and news in google and it's pages upon pages, all negative.
The guy says horrible things. What do you expect?
I expect nothing less from our corrupt system.
We should expect them to do their damn job though. But I guess most people just don't care anymore.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
A Simple Explanation Why Trump Will Win
While watching Phelps win his 23rd gold medal I realized that wherever he went he was treated with great deference. It was just understood that Phelps as the dominate athlete was the leader of the Olympic team.
That’s the way people act in society. People want and need strong leadership.
What will count to the voters in the presidential race is who they think can be trusted with their future. This perception of the voter of who will best lead is going to be their ultimate voting reality.
As the first leg of the presidential race unfolds, it seems Mrs. Clinton is swimming upstream against a swift current. Even with the entire media industry and an untold number of surrogates standing in for Mrs. Clinton, every day brings new revelations of her lying, cheating, bribery and the faint possibility of a criminal indictment.
It weighs her campaign down like lead weights.
Mr. Trump is swimming through choppy waters to be sure. But he seems to power through and gets stronger and more energetic as the race goes on. He radiates an aura of power and charisma which infuriates his detractors and delights his supporters.
Much as the Mrs. Clinton supporters and the anti-Trump crowd would like to call the race over and unilaterally declare that Mrs. Clinton is the winner, the race for the presidency is just getting started.
September 26 will be the first time Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump will compete mano-a-mano if you will pardon the expression. I’m planning on having a pizza/sushi party at my house.
What will happen when they are finally just one on one with no place to hide?
Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but the Democratic and Republican primary races shows us how Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump may perform.
Mrs. Clinton only won the Democrat Party primaries against an aged underfunded socialist/communist by literally rigging the election. If the primary were straight up, she would most likely would have lost. What is not speculation is that 21% fewer Democrats turned out to participate in the primaries this time around.
Trump dominated the Republican primaries where the major media was unmistakably biased against him as were the ruling Republican Political Establishment figures.
In the Republican primary, 62% more voters turned out than any previous Republican primary contest. Trump himself got the largest number of primary votes ever in the history of the Republican Party.
What about the issues and past accomplishments?
The political issues of the 1960s so engrained in Mrs. Clinton are in sharp contrast to the new voter’s desire for financial security, opportunity, and having a strong military and police for protection from the dangers of radical Islamic terrorists. A highly politically correct generation is being horrified by the proliferation of Black Lives Matter generated riots. The promise of getting union controlled factory jobs is not overly enticing.
Mrs. Clinton’s campaign is doing its best to run away from her actual record as a Senator, Secretary of State, and head of the Clinton Foundation. She has made it her life’s work to sell influence and government favors at the expense of the taxpayers. They certainly want to avoid reminding potential voters that Mrs. Clinton’s lies, cheats, and invariably has disastrous judgment.
Mr. Trump’s life is an open book. It’s all been played out publicly for his entire career. He is running on his actual record of performance. In a highly competitive global world, his name goes on everything he does. People eagerly pay extra to buy a Trump condo or stay in a Trump hotel. He grew up in the building trades and understand that a construction business is only as successful as the talent of its people.
Mr. Trump speaks in the language of working people — not the Washington, D.C. or elitist Orwellian double-speak. Working people relate to what Mr. Trump is saying not much differently than they would if Joe the Plumber was a billionaire and running for high office.
On September 26th, Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump will be one-on-one with no place to hide.
What really matters in this debate (and most decisions in life) is optics not policy. People do not systematically process information, and decisions are made emotionally. In the animal kingdom the pack always instinctively choses its alpha dog to lead.
Mrs. Clinton’s shrill voice is not pleasant to which to listen. She comes across as a mix between a mid-level policy wonk and snake-oil salesperson. Bernie Sanders appeared to be genuine and thereby dominated the primary debate almost at will.
Outside the debates Mrs. Clinton lets surrogates act in her place. Unless she has a complete make-over, she will appear on stage against Mr. Trump as a tired old 5’2’’stiff façade of an over-rehearsed politician promoting special interest agenda’s.
Trump is a 6’4’ vigorous male whose voice and tone are most engaging when speaking carefully. When he walks onto a stage it is as if he owns the whole studio. He dominated every primary debate against all the other well-funded and experienced Republican contenders. And he controls the news today. His campaign, like everything else he has done in life, is all Trump.
Why do I think Mr. Trump will win the debates and ultimately the presidential election?
My explantion is simple.
In this election cycle, Mr. Trump is the Alpha Dog of the pack.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
I liked Trump the minute I saw how much the establishment hated him, but I had to watch one of his speeches to find out that his policies are actually quite good. If he can do half of what he says it will be great for America.
I don't think it makes much sense for the two of us to debate the merits of a given policy, since we're obviously not going to convince each other anyway on most of those. What I do keep wondering though, is how smart people like yourself talk about Trumps 'policies' as if that's actually a thing. The man has been nothing but inconsistent on any real policy except for "'Muricahns Good, Mexicans Bad!" and other variants on the immigration theme... (and even there he's been showing inconsistency, with his muslim ban going from outright banning every single muslim indefinitely 'until we know what's going on', to now being reduced to just muslims from certain regions, but definitely not Europe).
Then there's the so-called "truth speaking", while he's continuously caught in lies, having to correct himself often within days of making a statement. His harsh tone supposedly makes people like him 'cause he's not a "regular politician" like Hillary, but he speaks like a friggin' insecure stereotype of a mob boss. Both are types can definitely be considered power hungry, and some might say there's not that much difference between the two, but how does that make him any better?
It seems like his supporters spend most of their time coming up with explanations as to why his lies aren't really lies, how his policies are actually well thought out if you dig deep enough, how his crass behavior is just an act to get more votes and he'll be all presidential-like once in office (really? so you're voting for a guy that's basically conning you into voting for him, and you're ok with that), and how the media is all in cahoots lying to us... It all just seems so... I dunno... desperate?
If you hate Hillary so much (I get it, there's plenty wrong with her as well), support Gary Johnson. I might not agree with all of them, but that man at least has actual policy positions, he's at least consistent within his own logic.
