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- Smoking Guns
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
Housing prices outside of hotspots are very fair. How much do you think a builder makes when they sell a home?
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
Trump Leads Clinton by 6
A new USDW telephone and online survey finds Republican nominee Donald Trump expanding his lead to six point with forty-four percent (44%) support to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s thirty-eight (38%).
Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson pulled in seven percent (7%), with five percent (5%) backing Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
Another six percent (6%) remain undecided.
The Survey, conducted August 13-17, was a sample of 1,405 likely voters, of which 475 were Democrats (34%), 462 were Republicans (33%), and 468 were Independent or Other (33%).
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
Clinton lead over Trump shrinks to margin-of-error: Bloomberg poll
Is Hillary Clinton squashing Donald Trump into oblivion in the polls? Or is her lead over him perilously shrinking? One thing we know is: there are countless ways to spin a poll. Consider the case of selective reporting on the most recent Bloomberg national poll.
On Aug. 10, Bloomberg reported “Clinton up 6 on Trump in Two Way Race.” But looking at the actual poll, Trump has moved so close to Clinton, the results are within the margin of error.
Notably, in five months, Clinton’s lead over Trump in the Bloomberg poll has shrunk from 18-points to within the margin of error.
In March of 2016, when likely voters were asked to choose between Clinton and Trump “if the election were held today,” Clinton bested Trump 54%-36% (18 percentage points).
In June, with Libertarian Gary Johnson thrown into the mix, Clinton’s lead over Trump was 5 percentage points smaller: 48% to 35% (13 percentage points).
In the most recent poll, the spread between Clinton and Trump in a two-person race was down to just 3 percentage points, Clinton at 45% and Trump at 42%. That’s within the margin of error. When Libertarian and Green Party candidates are put in the mix, it’s Clinton 42% and Trump 40% –again within the margin of error.
But this notable trend isn’t reflected in the Bloomberg write-up here. Instead, the reporter chose to use the poll numbers that look better for Clinton: ones that added in “leaners.” What are leaners? Respondents who were first asked who they’d vote for, then answered they didn’t plan to vote or didn’t know who they’d vote for, and then were pressed to pick a candidate they were leaning toward, anyway. This is how Bloomberg got to the 6-point spread cited in its headline…double the actual spread of 3%.
The graphic Bloomberg used in its news story appears somewhat misleading in this context. It depicts the 6-point spread as the result of the question “…for whom would you vote?” It doesn’t disclose that the graphic adds in “leaners” who were asked a followup question.
The article then selects one negative factoid to highlight about Trump and use in the subheadline: “The findings suggest damage has been done to one of Trump’s main calling cards, his business expertise, with 61 percent of likely voters saying they’re less impressed with the Republican nominee’s business acumen than when the campaign started.” The 61% answer was in response to a freestanding question Bloomberg chose to ask about Trump, with no equivalent question presented about Clinton. One could envision, for example, the poll could have asked, “Since the start of the campaign, are you more or less impressed with Hillary Clinton’s ability to handle the nation’s secrets and sensitive information?” Odds are, such a question could have produced a number at least as negative as Trump’s on business expertise. But the Clinton question wasn’t asked.
In fact, the Bloomberg poll shows Trump improved in eight categories when it comes to being associated with positive phrases, while Clinton is down in eight categories. Trump improved his ratings in “Would fight hard for the middle class,” “Would rein in the power of Wall Street,” “Has the right temperament to be president,” “Is ready to lead our country on day one in office,” “Could get things done in Washington,” “Would be a good role model for children,” “Is trustworthy,” and “Possesses the skills needed to conduct foreign policy.”
Read the Bloomberg poll questions and methodology
This isn’t to suggest reporting on this poll should have favored Trump; ideally, it should reflect general positives and negatives for each candidate, if they exist, and include relevant trends for context and perspective.
It’s simply another reminder that what you read in the news often comes through a filter.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
Housing prices outside of hotspots are very fair. How much do you think a builder makes when they sell a home?
Beats me. It's not necessarily about new homes. Housing prices overall are back to increasing at crazy levels as they did before the bubble burst.
Here's what I know though: I bought a new construction house in the middle of nowhere in TN in 2004 before the bubble burst. I sold it in 2014 for roughly 20% more than I paid for it. I had a house built in SC 2 years ago for 168K after all of the upgrades we did...that same exact house is being built in phase 2 starting at 172K with no upgrades. It would be more than 200K with the same upgrades. 30K+ in 2 years? Understandable when you're talking about 500K houses, but pretty steep under 200K.
This is where people will just dismiss everything saying it's just my experience. It's not. The housing market is hotter here than most places (probably), but this is happening in more places than not.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
Sharyl Attkisson: Trump is Outperforming Romney by 16 Points – WaPo/ABC News Poll
Investigative journalist Sharyl Attkisson has good news for the Trump campaign.
According to analysis of the most recent Washington Post/ABC News poll, Donald Trump is outperforming Mitt Romney by 16 points.
Democrat-heavy sample nets better news for Trump
Among the same Democrat-heavy sample: 26% say they voted for Romney in 2012. 42% say they are leaning toward Trump in 2016.
Another poll; another way to spin.
Earlier this week, I showed how the reporting on a Bloomberg poll could be skewed to make results look more or less positive for a given candidate.
Today, we look at a Washington Post/ABC News poll that also purports to show a widening Clinton lead over Trump – by 8 points: 50% to 42%. This may well be the case. However, looking at the poll sample numbers, there’s some relevant context not reported in news stories.
The poll interviewed 10% more people who identify as Democrats (33%) than Republicans (23%), with the largest group (36%) calling themselves independent. So with 10% more Democrats than Republicans questioned, Clinton leads Trump by 8-points.
Even more interesting, the same Democrat-heavy sample favored Obama by a larger 10-point margin over Romney in 2012: 36% Obama to 26% Romney (with 32% saying they didn’t vote). We know this because the poll asked respondents how they voted in 2012. So today, Trump is outperforming Romney with the exact same Democrat-heavy sample of voters.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
There is so much BULLSHIT in this campaign from Clinton and the globalists and their fake poll numbers.
Clinton struggles to get hundreds at a rally. Trump has standing room-only in a fucking arena/stadium.
But yeah, Hillary is gonna slay him come November.
It's all a roose.
Trump will be the people's candidate, regardless of what they pull or what the corporate media tells you. ALL of it has become clickbait.
What makes me sad, is how quickly Bernie just... gave up. They stole the nomination from him, no investigations, DNC chairwoman steps down, DNC staffers dead, Julian Assange e-mail leaks showing she's a cunt-ass liar, like we knew she was, leaked photos of her barely able to walk and stand and looking like she has brain damage, and regardless of Trump, the collusion within the DNC... it was worth at least... a look? A night a 20/20 or 48 Hours doc for an hour...
Nope
Big bang boom it's over, Trump's a racist, Hillary is the American pope, Trump's getting slayed in battle states Hillary has to pay 300 people to show up at...
If Hilary was Bush, man there would already be a 5-part Frontline series on her
A wise man told me recently that the vote has always been rigged. I asked why, "because if it meant anything... they wouldn't allow us to do it"
This election has never been more obvious of that
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
I can totally see why people don't like Trump. Not surprising at all. I do wonder though why so many want Hillary. Are they all just anti-Trump?
If Trump can persuade his haters he isn't a dangerous candidate he should win on turnout alone, when most of the opposition stays home or votes third party.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
Scraping the barrel now.
Complaint Alleges Trump Adviser Was Holocaust Denier
One of Donald Trump’s foreign policy advisers doubted the extent of the Holocaust and bragged about firing “the Jews” during his tenure as inspector general at the Defense Department, according to allegations surfaced by McClatchyDC on Thursday.
After working for the federal government, Joseph E. Schmitz worked as an executive at Blackwater Worldwide and now works as a private practice attorney in Washington. He was named as an adviser to Trump’s campaign in March.
In a complaint file obtained by McClatchy, senior intelligence official Daniel Meyer wrote of Schmitz, “His summary of his tenure’s achievement reported as ‘…I fired the Jews.’” Meyer, who worked in the Pentagon inspector general’s office, cited another Pentagon official, John Crane, as the source and witness to Schmitz’s alleged remark.
Crane reported Schmitz also made remarks casting doubt on the Holocaust, Meyer wrote in the complaint, which is now before the Merit Systems Protection Board.
“In his final days, he allegedly lectured Mr. Crane on the details of concentration camps and how the ovens were too small to kill 6 million Jews,” Meyer wrote.
In an interview with the site, Schmitz said the allegations are “completely false and defamatory.” He also said while his wife is not practicing, she is “ethnically Jewish.”
“I do not recall ever even hearing of any ‘allegations of anti-Semitism against [me],’ which would be preposterously false and defamatory because, among other reason(s), I am quite proud of the Jewish heritage of my wife of 38 years,” he wrote in an email to McClatchyDC.
Schmitz also accused Crane of being the source for other false allegations against him.
Meyer, who now works as the Obama administration’s top official reviewing how intelligence agencies handle complaints by whistleblowers, said he could not comment on the pending case.
Crane also told McClatchy that he could not comment on his conversation with Schmitz, but said he would speak to the remarks “if, when, I am required to testify under oath in a MSPB hearing.” His attorney, Andrew Bakaj, denied Schmitz’s allegation that Cane made false allegations.
His client “has had no involvement with any of the numerous news accounts challenging the actions or decisions made by Mr. Schmitz when he was Inspector General,” Bakaj said.
The allegations about Schmitz’s rhetoric are also part of a case brought by David Tenenbaum, a Michigan-based Army engineer. In a letter this week to acting Pentagon Inspector General Glenn Fine, Tenenbaum’s lawyer, Mayer Morganroth wrote an “anti-Semitic environment” at the Pentagon “began under a prior Inspector General, Mr. Joseph Schmitz.”
Schmitz left the George W. Bush administration in 2005 to take the Blackwater job, a move that came after Schmitz was reportedly informed he was the focus of a congressional inquiry into whether he blocked two criminal investigations of Bush officials the year before. But at the time, Schmitz insisted to TPM that his resignation was not connected to the allegations.
Schmitz is the son of the late John G. Schmitz, the former ultraconservative congressman from Orange County, California. In 1972, he was drafted by the American Independent Party to run for president against Richard Nixon after Alabama Gov. George Wallace was shot In Maryland. As a sitting congressman, Schmitz refused to comment after he wrote the foreword and endorsed the publication of a book that contained widely-condemned anti-Semitic propaganda and was written by a longtime member of the John Birch society. John G. Schmitz was also a member of the organization, but his membership was revoked for holding views still too far right, even for the very conservative group.
When the senior Schmitz died in 2001, the publication arm of the Institute For Historical Review, which is dedicated to publishing Holocaust denialists, wrote in an obituary that he was “a good friend” of the institute.
Joseph E. Schmitz’s sister is Mary Kay Fualaau, formerly Letourneau, the former teacher who served six years in prison after being convicted of raping her 12-year-old student, whom she later married.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
I can totally see why people don't like Trump. Not surprising at all. I do wonder though why so many want Hillary. Are they all just anti-Trump?
If Trump can persuade his haters he isn't a dangerous candidate he should win on turnout alone, when most of the opposition stays home or votes third party.
Alot of people don't like Trump simply because he's a BILLIONAIRE who says the things he says. It's frankly kind of prejudice, but I agree stupid.
But at the same time, if Stone Cold Steve Austin was running for Pres, or even say Jesse Ventura, and said the exact same thing as a "Joe Everyone", most people would laugh and cheer it on as 'putting it like it is'.
The complaints against Trump are valid. The guy was born with a gold spoon in his mouth, but he's gonna point at us and tell us what's wrong with the country from a rich, and from the minority's pov, rich white man's perspective.
Alot of people see Trump as part of the problem.
Yet Hillary is the exact same coin. She was born into the Rodham family, and was poised to spend her life in politics, groomed at the youngest of age. She has sold out the U.S. to foreign interests at every turn, and called it Democracy. Her and Bill's foundation have stolen millions, including from the Haiti Earthquake relief efforts. She buried the middle class by selling out factory jobs to China (even Michael Moore has admitted to this). She's lied at every turn, including disgracing the military by boasting herself a survivor of enemy fire for an event that never even took place. Bengazi is a complete clusterfuck. She runs as a feminist, yet helped threaten women who were either mistresses or rape victims of her husband for years, all the while building the goliath Clinton name in politics.
And even within HER OWN PARTY, she had to result to dirty tricks and the DNC helping her steal the nomination from her.
Bernie had a real revolution in the palm of his hand, and he just... quit. Some within the DNC ranks say he was threatened, some say he was actually attacked by the DNC power elite. Who knows what happened, but either way, he threw her a nom, left the party, and just vanished from the scene, yet we've gotta hear each week from Mitt "GOP insider" Romney how great Clinton would be over Trump. As well as the Bush family cartel vouching for Clinton.
Forget Trump
Hillary Clinton has been endorsed publicly, multiple times, by the Bush family. So all of you diehard Democrats, diehard Bernie supporters that go cast a vote for Hilldog, just remember... a vote for Hillary... is a vote for George W. Bush 5th term, after Obama finished his 3rd & 4th.
The neocon/globalist policies never ended. It amazes me how many people think she's going to be more than Bush IV, yet when Bush II was in office swore they hated his guts.
I don't get it. Nothing will change. The only thing I think Trump represents is ENDED the previous cabal that has been apart of the country since Kennedy's assassination, which is why so many of them in that group are fighting so hard to keep Hillary, like Kissenger and the CFR, George H.W. Bush, John McCain, all these GOP-types LOVE Hillary.
That shouldn't make you think unity... it should make you pencil in Bernie come election day just in a sheer act of defiance.
Trump represents nothing more than "Something else". Something different than the same cabal of people that have been up there for years.
Remember something, the GOP insiders were dead-convinced that Jeb Bush was a LOCK for the GOP nomination, and the DNC NEVER thought Bernie would make it past the first few primaries, and when he did, they went into panic-mode.
So there original thought was... Bush vs. Clinton -- again. You gotta vote for one of them. Trump & Sanders completely eliminated that. Sanders has been bumped off through thievery, and Trump is the last man standing. The polling numbers are bullshit, everyone knows it, and everything in this election-cycle has some sort of political bent. It just doesn't add up. None of it. Including how Sanders was treated. And his instant-quit on the e-mail scandal, i'm convinced, buried any chance he had of beating her. He just didn't push hard enough, and he still pretty much beat her, and she had to cheat to win.
I think most people have their mind made up who they are going to vote for. The incoming debates or scandals aren't going to change that. This is one of those elections that I think people already have their mind made up.
The realty is it'll come down to racial demos. Who will win? White males vs. Women & Minorities. Trump is virtually hated by minorities and middle-aged to older women, yet, Hillary is hated by young women (who wanted Sanders), and young women is the ace-in-the-hole demo for Democrats, who lined up in 2008 to proudly cast their vote for Obama, are more than likely just going to stay home come election day. That might play into Trump's hand.
Who knows
Trump gets elected
Half this country will want to declare war
Hillary gets elected
Half this country will want to declare war
It's literally Aliens vs. Predator... whoever wins -- we lose.
