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Re: US Politics Thread
Almost All Last-Minute Bets Are for Trump, Paddy Power Says
In the betting markets at least, Donald Trump is crushing Hillary Clinton.
So far this week, the Republican candidate has outshone his rival in terms of both the number and volume of wagers, according to figures revealed yesterday by Ireland’s largest bookmaker, Paddy Power Betfair Plc. Just shy of 100,000 euros ($111,000) in bets came in, with 91 percent of them for Trump.
“This election’s been a serious betting anomaly,” said Féilim Mac An Iomaire, a spokesman for the company. Even before Oct. 28, when FBI Director James Comey announced the discovery of new e-mails he deemed “pertinent” to a closed probe of Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, money placed on a Trump victory amounted to almost the same as that bet on his rival, despite her lead in opinion polls.
“You don’t normally see so much placed on the outside candidate but I think the shock of Brexit is fresh in people’s minds,” Mac An Iomaire said. The S&P 500 is on track for its longest losing streak since 2011 as market participants fret about a possible Trump Presidency.
The U.K.’s June referendum bruised professional pollsters by dealing an unexpected blow to the status quo. But another lesson from that vote is that betting flows aren’t a foolproof indicator, since bookies reported a last minute surge in bets that the U.K. electorate would choose to remain in the European Union. The next day, the “Leave” camp emerged triumphant.
Still, bookmaker data appear to be echoing moves in financial markets, with the Mexican peso, Credit Suisse AG’s “ultimate market indicator,” weakening more than 3 percent since Comey’s letter.
The probability of a Trump victory implied by offshore betting odds are now at 28.5 percent, according to Convergex Market Strategist Nicholas Colas. That’s roughly the same as flipping a coin and getting heads twice in a row, and matches estimates by professional polling analysts.
For Paddy Power, which reports third-quarter earnings on Friday, the stakes are higher than most. The company announced it would start paying out on a Clinton victory in mid-October, having initially offered a Trump presidency at 100 to 1.
- Smoking Guns
- Rep: 330
Re: US Politics Thread
Is this your girlfriend Smoking?
Well, that was disturbing.
Re: US Politics Thread
THis is interesting.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/colu … 5-132.html
I still say Biden should've run.
I saw this posted somewhere...
Breaking: Secretary of Election employees in Broward County, FL caught filling out absentee ballots!
Re: US Politics Thread
Last redstatewatcher video I watched said Trump would win Illinois, because their's alot of blacks there that watched the debate and the guy was sure Trump's message about "living in hell" reached them.
Re: US Politics Thread
Biden didn't run because of the Clinton machine & they essentially asked/pleaded/highly suggested he don't run. I think he was afraid he might win by mistake, sorta like Bernie almost did. On a personal note I do think his son dying affected him a bit, and he'll enjoy his time off, plus he has aged and is pretty old now (70, 71?) And I think he was very close, VP, and he's ok with that. Had Hillary not been waiting "her turn" he would have run.
No way Hillary gets this close to being the first woman President elected, and step down days away. Sadly she would rather win, get sworn in, then impeached in a year than step down. Sad but true.
Re: US Politics Thread
It's truly the issues that really matter in this election
I saw on FB someone posted that Ivanka Trumps shoe company essentially stole/trademark infringed another company's shoe. Gucci or something. And the comments to it were mostly serious. There were side by side images.
Like, wtf, this is what we care about here? And should we really feel all that bad for Gucci?!
Re: US Politics Thread
It's truly pathetic. They want your eye off the ball. There are some legitimate issues like Obamacare, war, etc. but they want everyone thinking about Russian hackers, Ivanka, and grabbing pussy.
Only way to get Hillary in there I suppose and I agree she'd rather win and face even a small possibility of being impeached than step down.
Re: US Politics Thread
Cramer, did you read this?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 … nald-trump
This is just as scary:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2 … anboy.htmlTwo days before FBI director James Comey rocked the world last week, Rudy Giuliani was on Fox, where he volunteered, un-prodded by any question: “I think he’s [Donald Trump] got a surprise or two that you’re going to hear about in the next few days. I mean, I’m talking about some pretty big surprises.”
Pressed for specifics, he said: “We’ve got a couple of things up our sleeve that should turn this thing around.”
You know I gave Comey the benefit of the doubt with this. I figured he must be between a rock and a hard place. But now I'm not so sure. This is pretty outrageous. Even Republicans have spoken out against the timing of this announcement, but now it appears much more insidious than poor timing.
Re: US Politics Thread
misterID wrote:Cramer, did you read this?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 … nald-trump
This is just as scary:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2 … anboy.htmlTwo days before FBI director James Comey rocked the world last week, Rudy Giuliani was on Fox, where he volunteered, un-prodded by any question: “I think he’s [Donald Trump] got a surprise or two that you’re going to hear about in the next few days. I mean, I’m talking about some pretty big surprises.”
Pressed for specifics, he said: “We’ve got a couple of things up our sleeve that should turn this thing around.”You know I gave Comey the benefit of the doubt with this. I figured he must be between a rock and a hard place. But now I'm not so sure. This is pretty outrageous. Even Republicans have spoken out against the timing of this announcement, but now it appears much more insidious than poor timing.
I've lost all faith in the Comey and it doesn't say much for the FBI itself. This is Hoover shit. They couldn't damage her with facts, so they're doing it with innuendo.
