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Re: Current Events Thread
I missed it. I haven't watched 60 Minutes in years. I'll have to check it out on youtube.
I just saw the Primary Model....they've correctly predicted 25 of the past 27 elections since 1912.
They correctly predicted Trump's win in 2016 when everyone else was going with Hillary.
They're predicting that Trump wins the 2020 election 362 electoral votes to Biden's 176.
They put his chances at 91%.
Re: Current Events Thread
I missed it. I haven't watched 60 Minutes in years. I'll have to check it out on youtube.
I just saw the Primary Model....they've correctly predicted 25 of the past 27 elections since 1912.
They correctly predicted Trump's win in 2016 when everyone else was going with Hillary.
They're predicting that Trump wins the 2020 election 362 electoral votes to Biden's 176.
They put his chances at 91%.
If that’s what I just saw, it gives New York to Trump. Um, I don’t buy that. That’s not reality.
- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: Current Events Thread
That map is outrageous. How can their model be remotely accurate if they’re thinking a Republican would ever take New York.
- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: Current Events Thread
Also it appears this model was issued in March, prior to the pandemic and all its caused. Even more reason to dismiss it.
Re: Current Events Thread
I think its collapsing. There was no 'debate 2 bump', Pence's aides now have Covid, Covids gotten expectedly worse and will continue the next 7 days, including all weekend, and lastly early voting is thru the roof. Looks like he might even lose SC & GA.
- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: Current Events Thread
I think its collapsing. There was no 'debate 2 bump', Pence's aides now have Covid, Covids gotten expectedly worse and will continue the next 7 days, including all weekend, and lastly early voting is thru the roof. Looks like he might even lose SC & GA.
That ain't happening either. He'll win both handedly.
- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: Current Events Thread
I just saw they predict both Trump and McSally will win Arizona.
I just can't see him losing Florida.
She's not winning AZ and I doubt Trump loses Florida. Look at 2018. It's unlikely Trump gets Arizona, but certainly possible. You'll be able to call the election as soon as NC is decided if Trump doesn't win there. If he doesn't win NC, he's not going to get any of the blue wall states he got in 16 either. And if he doesn't get one of them, he loses.
What I'm much more concerned about is if ACB sides with the other four on PA when it comes up again this week. It went 4-4 last week. I don't agree with the shenanigans my state is up to, Wolf deciding we won't verify any signatures for the unprecedented amount of mail-in ballots the state forced (and already fucked up 25k in my county) on voters. But I also don't like some county clerk deciding if a signature looks good enough. This wasn't a problem previously and for the life of me I can't figure out why Democrats are opposed to requiring ID to vote (other than it would hurt shady shit like what PA is doing now). Every other first world nation has voter ID, but somehow this is just a tremendous attack on liberty to verify someone is who they say they are before casting a ballot.
Re: Current Events Thread
misterID wrote:I just saw they predict both Trump and McSally will win Arizona.
I just can't see him losing Florida.
She's not winning AZ and I doubt Trump loses Florida. Look at 2018. It's unlikely Trump gets Arizona, but certainly possible. You'll be able to call the election as soon as NC is decided if Trump doesn't win there. If he doesn't win NC, he's not going to get any of the blue wall states he got in 16 either. And if he doesn't get one of them, he loses.
This is what I’m watching for. If Florida is close, that’s bad for Trump. The winner here will be called on election night.
As for NC, it is a good indicator of how MI, WI and PA will go. If Biden wins it, he likely wins the others and vice versa, although NC is closer than the Rust Belt.
Another to watch later in the night if Biden and Trump start splitting everything is Iowa and NE2, where Biden is marginally ahead in both. Hard to imagine the race still being in flux by the time AZ closes, but that is the last state that realistically could swing the election.
I personally think we’ll know who wins by 9 pm ET.
