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Re: Current Events Thread
A lot of this data is going to get dumped right at 7 p.m. EDT. It could be the whole election from one county.
Sumter Co. FL (The Villages) presidential results in 2016 (Trump carried FL by 1.2%):
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 3, 2020
Trump 68.3%
Clinton 29.3%
Sumter Co. FL (The Villages) Senate results in 2018 (Scott carried FL by 0.1%):
Scott: 70.9%
Nelson: 29.1%
So, Biden breaking 33% in Sumter would be a huge coup.
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Love these bits of data you're sharing keep them coming.
Doesn't every swing state have at least one bell weather county?
Re: Current Events Thread
Yeah, IN#5 is a good one. Pinellas County in Florida is another good one. Milwaukee County, of course. Maricopa County in Arizona. Detroit, whatever county that is. Fulton County, Georgia.
The data I shared above is for the famous county with The Villages retirement community. They usually have golf cart parades of Trump voters going to the polls. This year, there was a huge Biden golf cart parade too, which started setting off alarm bells. If a significant % of seniors switch to supporting Biden in Florida, it's over. There are more of them than the Latino men voting for Trump in Miami-Dade.
Conventional wisdom, as the above post suggests, was Trump needs to win Sumter County by a 2:1 margin at the least to repeat 2016. So 66-33 does that, but 33% is more than Clinton got, so realistically Trump needs about 69-70% of this county.
Re: Current Events Thread
Yeah, IN#5 is a good one. Pinellas County in Florida is another good one. Milwaukee County, of course. Maricopa County in Arizona. Detroit, whatever county that is. Fulton County, Georgia.
The data I shared above is for the famous county with The Villages retirement community. They usually have golf cart parades of Trump voters going to the polls. This year, there was a huge Biden golf cart parade too, which started setting off alarm bells. If a significant % of seniors switch to supporting Biden in Florida, it's over. There are more of them than the Latino men voting for Trump in Miami-Dade.
Conventional wisdom, as the above post suggests, was Trump needs to win Sumter County by a 2:1 margin at the least to repeat 2016. So 66-33 does that, but 33% is more than Clinton got, so realistically Trump needs about 69-70% of this county.
Ya know...over the past few years I've really gotten into the counties of my former home state of Wisconsin. As you know, the state of Wisconsin has a pretty extensive and somewhat impressive state university system as well as quite a few technical colleges. It's really a great system...
But I notice when I looked at the counties by vote, I noticed a couple patterns. First, if there was a state college or university in the county, almost without fail, that county goes blue. These lesser populated counties of Wisconsin without any of that go overwhelmingly red.
So there's a reason why Republicans make it difficult to vote on-campus in Wisconsin and it has nothing to do with fraud. Especially when you consider that the vast majority of the voters in those middle size towns in Wisconsin come from that town. Simply having a university in your town influences the city that much over time.
Wisconsin Republicans have turned against higher education in droves. They see it as a threat...not an asset to the state.
Re: Current Events Thread
Slightly OT, but I heard something about that 'Villages' retirement community as a whole, something like it's the largest (land mass) city or county in Florida, or one of the biggest in the country. (TBH I think Jacksonville could be the largest or largest in FL). Anyway, whatever the stat was, it made it seem impressively large, not just a few retirement homes that I always thought it was.
Re: Current Events Thread
One of the fastest growing in the country, and it's population is like 130K. It's a whole collection of communities.
I'm more familiar with the Del Webb communities...for example in Arizona...the Sun City, Sun City West and Sun City Grand...that's like 100k people.
It's a weird vibe though...the community is surrounded by a wall...it's the epitome of what Trump talks about.
Re: Current Events Thread
This should send turnout through the roof.
The United States of America.
— Dakota Smith (@weatherdak) November 3, 2020
November 3rd, 2020. pic.twitter.com/kPLkYkyCrq
Re: Current Events Thread
lol
Just in from a Trump campaign source (lol): pic.twitter.com/qgsKA1Lgqz
— Jacqueline Alemany (@JaxAlemany) November 3, 2020
- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: Current Events Thread
lol
Just in from a Trump campaign source (lol): pic.twitter.com/qgsKA1Lgqz
— Jacqueline Alemany (@JaxAlemany) November 3, 2020
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i like this one better:
