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- Topics: Active | Unanswered
- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: finally a decent straight forward comment regarding CD
I don't see why not. Let's assume it cost them 1$ per cd to create (I think it's actually lower than that). CD will easily go double platinum. Hell Velvet Revolver attained those numbers, so one of the most anticipated albums of all time should easily hit that mark. At an average sale cost of 18$ per album, that would net 34 million in profits. Obviously some percentage of this would goto GN'R, but very little as album sales is not how artists get the bulk of their paycheck. Let's say 8 million goes to GN'R out of this number, which I think is a generous assumption. That leaves 26 million to the record company. Subtract the supposed 13 million already invested into the album, and we're left with 13 million. 13 million to promote the album. This all of course doesn't include online sales and deals made with 3rd parties for licensing of the songs such as the Harley commerical. I think CD will exceed my conservative estimate of 2 million in album sales, which will result in even more profits as I don't see them using the 13 million in profits already existing totally on advertisement.
CD will turn a profit. I don't buy into the multiple albums idea. I'm sure they have hours of canned recordings, but Axl laying down lyrics and mixing more than one album's worth of songs is a pipe dream. CD will be a commerical success by objective standards. But it will never live up to the hype that has continually grown around it. This album would have to be nothing short of the greatest album in all time to justify it's perpetual delays. Since music is subjective, CD could never obtain that title even if by many peoples standards it was. For this reason, CD will be considered by many critics and probably some fans as a failure. You can't please everyone.
Re: finally a decent straight forward comment regarding CD
Remember that the 13 million has already been spent, so any money got back from sales is a good thing, even if it is a loss overall. At least, for the record label, who I would think would want to release it as soon as they can, just to get back something. Axl may have other ideas of course.
Re: finally a decent straight forward comment regarding CD
I don't see why not. Let's assume it cost them 1$ per cd to create (I think it's actually lower than that). CD will easily go double platinum. Hell Velvet Revolver attained those numbers, so one of the most anticipated albums of all time should easily hit that mark. At an average sale cost of 18$ per album, that would net 34 million in profits. Obviously some percentage of this would goto GN'R, but very little as album sales is not how artists get the bulk of their paycheck. Let's say 8 million goes to GN'R out of this number, which I think is a generous assumption. That leaves 26 million to the record company. Subtract the supposed 13 million already invested into the album, and we're left with 13 million. 13 million to promote the album. This all of course doesn't include online sales and deals made with 3rd parties for licensing of the songs such as the Harley commerical. I think CD will exceed my conservative estimate of 2 million in album sales, which will result in even more profits as I don't see them using the 13 million in profits already existing totally on advertisement.
CD will turn a profit. I don't buy into the multiple albums idea. I'm sure they have hours of canned recordings, but Axl laying down lyrics and mixing more than one album's worth of songs is a pipe dream. CD will be a commerical success by objective standards. But it will never live up to the hype that has continually grown around it. This album would have to be nothing short of the greatest album in all time to justify it's perpetual delays. Since music is subjective, CD could never obtain that title even if by many peoples standards it was. For this reason, CD will be considered by many critics and probably some fans as a failure. You can't please everyone.
its not that easy Randall...there is a formula kicking around from a few years ago where someone broke down the costs wrapped into a CD and who gets what portion of the cost that a consumer puts into it...haha this thing pops up ever few months..it really puts things into perspective though
C.D. cost breakdown with a price of $15.99:
- $0.17 Musicians' unions
- $0.80 Packaging/manufacturing
- $0.82 Publishing royalties
- $0.80 Retail profit
- $0.90 Distribution
- $1.60 Artists' royalties
- $1.70 Label profit
- $2.40 Marketing/promotion
- $2.91 Label overhead
- $3.89 Retail overhead
so Universal has about $13,000,000 invested...to get that back they need to sell 7,647,059 cds just to break even...i think that will be nigh on impossible in this day and age 
if they confiscate the Artist royalties until they break even then they need to sell just under 4mill....do you think axl will sacrifce his royalties?
EDIT: however going back to the rumored trilogy...if GnR owes universal 3 CD's instead of only one then each album needs to sell about 2.55 million copies....obviously thats a more attainable goal is it something that is possible? that remains to be seen...latest rumor is by Baz who claims 4 albums worth of material
- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: finally a decent straight forward comment regarding CD
That is the formula for one musician's release. I take your point, but I think that this album doesn't need the promotion a standard album would receive. I also don't expect CD to be sold at 15.99 either. By cutting promotion cust to 1$ per CD and increasing the cost of the album to 17.99, Geffen will gain $5.10 per cd sold. 13,000,000 / 5.10 = 2.55 million records sold to break even. As I said earlier, I expect CD to far exceed that number. There will of course be itunes sales and other methods to make income as well. The most important factor will lay in places like this though. Members who openly admit they will download the album or share it need to be banned. I know the whole napster thing left a bad taste in people's mouth, but this is the perfect example of how people sharing music can hurt the industry. We're not talking about downloading a song that has already sold millions, we're talking about preventing an album from ever being released. If CD fails commerically, there will be no sequent releases. There is a difference between sharing leaks and sharing the actual album.
Re: finally a decent straight forward comment regarding CD
of course if they refuse to market it and try to let it sell by word of mouth then they could also wrap up the marketing budget into the cost...or do very little promotion and add some of that...bottom line here is that they have to maximize their profit just to gain back all the money they put into it
Edit you've already started seeing my point above...
That is the formula for one musician's release. I take your point, but I think that this album doesn't need the promotion a standard album would receive. I also don't expect CD to be sold at 15.99 either. By cutting promotion cust to 1$ per CD and increasing the cost of the album to 17.99, Geffen will gain $5.10 per cd sold. 13,000,000 / 5.10 = 2.55 million records sold to break even. As I said earlier, I expect CD to far exceed that number. There will of course be itunes sales and other methods to make income as well.
anyway yeah it comes down now to who is getting what and what universal is willing to put into now for marketing and videos and what not...i'm sure this is a major part of the current negotiating
Re: finally a decent straight forward comment regarding CD
And, I would like to see Universal's list of artists with 90 million records sold worldwide with only 4 albums of original material...pretty short one I imagine.
4?????
you must be counting Lies.
I say three
Re: finally a decent straight forward comment regarding CD
war wrote:madagas wrote:And, I would like to see Universal's list of artists with 90 million records sold worldwide with only 4 albums of original material...pretty short one I imagine.
4?????
you must be counting Lies.
I say three
Ok so whether it's 4, 3 & 3 1/2, it's still impressive.
In any event, I don't think Uni is looking at any GNR has done in the past having to do with this particular release. Literally everything has changed since the last GNR release of new material.
i agree but
i still think both axl and the gnr name have enough draw for uni to want to release the album as long as it is good.
Re: finally a decent straight forward comment regarding CD
I think the issues have evolved as far as what an artist should demand be tracked and reported. Very few artist could force the hand on these negotiations, but some could force the label to recognize the issues and address them.
I had an interesting discussion with a fortune 500 Intellectual property attorney recently who made me aware of some of the issues that are being contested as far as artist pay I was unaware of. I doubt Ax is unaware of these issues. Common Cents you know..it adds up.
The other thing with Guns in Roses is it has such huge global/ international appeal. America with this band is only part of the formula, the marketing has to be global and it has to be right... Plus they always break with a movie, I doubt Axl will stray to far from the U curb formula that has always worked.
I remain confident one day we will get the record, I only worry that other elements might think he is more valuable dead than alive... Sad but true... with all the tape and video never to be released he has a virtual torrent of items outside of the record for release. He has waited this long now he has all this backlog to deal with. I wonder how many more records exist on the initial contract? Certainly not more than he has material for at this point. Does anyone know for certain?
He is really the one in the catbird seat given how limiting they are of behind the scenes material. That is where the real money and the real fans will go and where his money will come from (for a fee) IF he gets the record release and promotion terms right and IF the people he has had working for him are really preparing and doing the work necessary. Now in Hollywood those are big IFS.
Re: finally a decent straight forward comment regarding CD
I had an interesting discussion with a fortune 500 Intellectual property attorney recently who made me aware of some of the issues that are being contested as far as artist pay I was unaware of. I doubt Ax is unaware of these issues. Common Cents you know..it adds up.
can you elaborate at all what these issues may be? i'm definately interested 
